By Theo Brennan
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Captaincy Picks
For captaincy this week, Payne Haas (Broncos) against the Warriors leads with a projected 73.7 points, though his last three-game average is 57.7 points, and he's owned by 36.8% of coaches. Nathan Cleary (Panthers) is another strong consideration with a 68.8 projected score and a consistent 70.7 average over his last three, albeit with a high 50.2% ownership. A POD option could be Joe Roddy (Raiders), projected for 69 points, but his ownership is only 2.5%, and his last three average is a lower 22 points.
| Player | Proj | Owned |
|---|---|---|
| Payne Haas | 73.7 | 36.8% |
| Joe Roddy | 69 | 2.5% |
| Nathan Cleary | 68.8 | 50.2% |
| Herbie Farnworth | 63.2 | 42.3% |
| Jayden Campbell | 60.2 | 15.7% |
These captaincy and differential calls carry straight to the market — our guide to the best rugby betting sites in Australia ranks the books for NRL markets, State of Origin and finals futures.
Differentials Under 8% Owned
Looking for differentials, Joe Roddy (Raiders) stands out at a projected 69 points with only 2.5% ownership and a cost of 258000. Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) offers a projected 56.3 points at 570000 with 4.7% ownership. Other notable differentials include Isaiya Katoa (Dolphins) at a projected 55.5 points (6.7% owned, 586000 cost) and Patrick Carrigan (Broncos) with a projected 53.7 points, owned by 4.7% at 661000.
| Player | Proj | Owned |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Roddy | 69 | 2.5% |
| Fletcher Sharpe | 56.3 | 4.7% |
| Isaiya Katoa | 55.5 | 6.7% |
| Jamal Fogarty | 54 | 3.6% |
| Patrick Carrigan | 53.7 | 4.7% |
In-Form Watch (last 3 vs season avg)
Nicholas Hynes (Sharks) is in excellent form, averaging 88.7 points over his last three games, a significant delta of 20.1 points above his season average of 68.6. Ryan Couchman (Dragons) has also shown strong recent performance with an 82-point average over his last three, exceeding his season average of 62.9 by 19.1 points. Owen Pattie (Raiders) is another in-form player, averaging 57.3 points in his last three, compared to a 33.7 season average.
| Player | Last 3 | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| Owen Pattie | 57.3 | +23.6 |
| Nicholas Hynes | 88.7 | +20.1 |
| Ryan Couchman | 82 | +19.1 |
| Jack Williams | 71.3 | +18.3 |
| Liam Martin | 60 | +17.6 |
Matchup Edges
Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) has a favorable matchup against the Dolphins, with their opponent giving up 72.5 points against his position, significantly higher than his 38.3 average. Mawene Hiroti (Sharks) also faces a Raiders side that concedes 65 points against his position, well above his 31.6 average. Thomas Cant (Knights) is another to watch, facing a Titans team that gives up 58 points, compared to his 25.3 average.
| Player | Opp | Avg vs Opp |
|---|---|---|
| Lehi Hopoate | Dolphins | 72.5 |
| Mawene Hiroti | Raiders | 65 |
| Thomas Cant | Titans | 58 |
| Jordan Samrani | Cowboys | 64 |
| Adam Elliott | Bulldogs | 54 |
Price Risers
Jacob Webster (Dragons) is the top riser this week, with a significant projected price increase of 230000. Nicholas Hynes (Sharks) continues his ascent with a projected 70000 price rise. Tyran Wishart (Storm) and Eddie Ieremia-Toeava (Warriors) are also expected to see increases of 67000 and 64000, respectively.
| Player | Team | Rise |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Webster | Dragons | +$230k |
| Nicholas Hynes | Sharks | +$70k |
| Tyran Wishart | Storm | +$67k |
| Eddie Ieremia-Toeava | Warriors | +$64k |
| Francis Manuleleua | Knights | +$62k |
Byes to Plan Around
The Storm are on a bye this round, so ensure you have cover for any of their players in your squad.
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